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After Hours2h 38m agoSynced 06:30 PM ETSession Forecast
AMD range & direction — ATR + correlation model · backtested
AMD Overall Bias — 2026-08-07
Bullish Bias
Model confidence
56%
β=2.5 · QQQ ρ=0.83
After Hours (4:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET)
$479.53–$493.77
↑ Bull
36% conf · ±2.6%
Low
$479.53
Midpoint
$486.65
High
$493.77
Pre-Market (4:00 AM – 9:30 AM ET)
$474.36–$500.08
↑ Bull
40% conf · ±4.9%
Low
$474.36
Midpoint
$487.22
High
$500.08
Next Regular Session (9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET)
$463.67–$511.17
↑ Bull
56% conf · ±9.8%
Low
$463.67
Midpoint
$487.42
High
$511.17
Key Prediction Drivers
5-day momentum
+2.3%AMD below 20-day MA
-4.0%SPY today
+0.59%QQQ today
+1.15%ATR(14)
$38.29Volatility regime
NormalAMD/QQQ 20d corr
0.83AMD beta (capped 2.5)
2.50Day-of-week adj
0.92×Relative volume (RVOL)
0.92× (0.99× range adj)Model Backtest Accuracy
Range capture (n=15)26.7%
Direction accuracy (n=12)50%
Bull call accuracy50%
Walk-forward backtest over 200trading days. Range capture = % of sessions where actual high-low stayed within predicted band. Low capture reflects AMD's 2025–2026 period which included several 10-20% single-day moves (earnings, AI catalysts). Direction accuracy = % of non-neutral calls matching actual next-day close direction. 50% direction accuracy = coin flip — further improvement requires earnings calendar and macro signals.
Generated: 8/7/2026, 4:15:04 PM ETATR(14): $38.29 · ATR(5): $36.67Volatility regime: normalModel v2.1.0
⚠ Probabilistic range estimate. Not financial advice. Backtest on training data; out-of-sample accuracy will differ.